Are you tired of losing bets and want to improve your sports betting profits? One of the strategies you can use is Positive Expected Value (EV) betting. Positive EV betting involves identifying opportunities where the probability of an outcome is higher than the odds offered by a sportsbook. This article will explain what Positive EV betting is, how to calculate it, and how it can be used to make profitable sports bets.
What is Positive Expected Value?
Expected value is a statistical concept that is used to calculate the average outcome of a given event. In sports betting, expected value is calculated by multiplying the probability of a bet winning by the potential payout, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount staked. A positive expected value means that a bet has a higher probability of winning than the odds offered by the sportsbook.
Calculating Positive Expected Value
To calculate Positive EV, you first need to convert odds into their implied probabilities. Implied probability is the probability of an outcome occurring based on the odds offered by a sportsbook. To convert odds into implied probabilities, you can use an online odds converter.
Once you have the implied probability, you can calculate Positive EV by multiplying the probability of winning by the potential payout, and then subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount staked. If the resulting number is positive, then the bet has a positive expected value.
Here's an example: Let's say that a sportsbook is offering odds of +250 on Team A to win, which implies a probability of 28.6%. By using an online calculator, you determine that the implied probability of Team A winning is actually 33.3%. Therefore, the Positive EV of this bet can be calculated as follows:
Positive EV = (33.3% x 2.50) - (66.7% x 1) = 0.83
Since the Positive EV is greater than zero, this bet has a positive expected value.
Finding Positive Expected Value
Finding Positive EV opportunities requires researching and comparing the odds offered by multiple sportsbooks. You should also be familiar with the sport and league you are betting on and have a good understanding of the teams and players involved.
One way to find Positive EV opportunities is to use odds comparison websites. These sites can help you find the best odds offered by multiple sportsbooks for a particular event. Additionally, you can use statistical models and betting systems to identify potential Positive EV opportunities.
Using Positive Expected Value
Positive EV betting can be used to make more informed and profitable bets. By identifying opportunities where the implied probability is higher than the sportsbook odds, you can place bets that have a positive expected value. This means that over the long term, you can expect to make a profit from your sports betting activities.
It's important to note that Positive EV betting does not guarantee a profit for every bet. Even with a positive expected value, there is always a chance that you will lose the bet. Therefore, it's important to use proper bankroll management and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Conclusion
Positive Expected Value betting is a strategy that can be used to make more informed and profitable sports bets. By identifying opportunities where the implied probability is higher than the sportsbook odds, you can place bets with a positive expected value. Remember to do your research and only bet what you can afford to lose. With a bit of practice and patience, Positive EV betting can help you become a more successful sports bettor.