Variance is a critical concept to understand in sports betting. It refers to the range of possible outcomes of a bet and is an essential component of the long-term success of a sports bettor. In this article, we'll cover what variance is, how it affects sports betting, and strategies for dealing with it.
What is Variance?
Variance is the degree of uncertainty or deviation from the expected outcome. In sports betting, this means that a bettor can expect a range of possible outcomes, even if they are confident in their assessment of the game. Variance is not the same as randomness, but it can be influenced by luck and random events.
Impact of Luck
Luck can play a significant role in sports betting, especially in the short term. Variance is often higher in sports with a high degree of luck, such as baseball, where a single pitch can make a significant difference. However, luck tends to even out over the long term, and skill and strategy become more critical.
Avoiding High Variance Bets
High variance bets, such as prop bets, can be risky for beginner sports bettors. Prop bets are typically based on a single event or occurrence, which means that there are fewer opportunities for bettors to identify an edge. Instead, focus on bets that have a larger sample size, such as point spreads or moneylines, to reduce the impact of variance.
Bankroll Management
Bankroll management is the key to managing variance in sports betting. By setting a budget for bets and sticking to it, bettors can avoid chasing losses and making emotional decisions. A general rule of thumb is to bet no more than 2-3% of your bankroll on any given bet, which will help ensure that you have enough money to weather any losing streaks.
Tracking Results
Keeping track of your bets and results is an essential component of managing variance. By tracking your bets, you can identify which strategies are working and which ones are not. This information can help you adjust your approach and improve your long-term profitability.
Conclusion
Variance is a crucial concept to understand in sports betting. By acknowledging its role in the process and developing strategies for managing it, you can improve your chances of success. Remember to avoid high variance bets, practice good bankroll management, and track your results to ensure that you are making informed decisions and staying profitable in the long term.